2024 Semiconductor Industry Outlook | Global ETS

2024 Semiconductor Sector Outlook

Jan 10, 2024News


The global semiconductor industry, as indicated by data from the Semiconductor Industry Association, saw a year-on-year decrease of 0.7% in October, with month-on-month growth for the eighth consecutive month. Subdivisions like smartphones and PCs experienced a decline in demand, yet major chip manufacturers globally showed a slight decrease in inventory in 3Q3 2023, signaling a potential turning point. Executives' insights, gathered in a survey, indicate cautious optimism for 2024, focusing on talent cultivation and supply chain resilience as strategic priorities in the industry's restoration and layout theme.


First, we can review the data released by the recent institutions and manufacturers, and clearly understand the following industry status. According to data from the Semiconductor Industry Association (SIA), the global semiconductor sales in October were about 46.6 billion U.S. dollars, a year -on -year decrease of 0.7%, an increase of 3.9%month -on -month, and a month -on -month growth of eight consecutive months. Due to inventory pressure and the relief of the supply chain, the overall sales data is slowly recovering.

In terms of subdivision projects, due to the high downstream demand for consumer categories, the demand for these categories has sharply declined. According to Canalys data, the drop in smartphones and global PCs during 2023Q3 has further narrowed, and the supply has been more fully restored. Wind data reveals that major chip manufacturers worldwide, including Intel, AMD, Nvidia, Qualcomm, Broadcom, Micron, TI, ADI, NXP Semiconductors, Microchip, and Onsemi, had an average inventory week of 138 days in the second quarter of 2023. In the third quarter, this figure decreased by 2 days to 136 days. The inventory level of global chip manufacturers in 3Q3 2023 has slightly decreased, indicating a potential turning point in inventory. It is expected that subsequent inventory levels will continue to decline.

Based on historical data and industry sales data, the industry generally expects that 2024 will be the year of the industry's comprehensive recovery. IDC predicts that the prospect of the global semiconductor market will be upgraded from the low valley to growth: in 2024, the semiconductor market will increase by 20.2%to reach 633 billion US dollars. The terminal demand that can be observed at present begins in the AI layout, driving the comprehensive upgrade of consumer electronics products or even driving the yield output value of wafer foundry. It is estimated that the average capacity utilization rate of the global fabral factory in 24Q4 can be restored by 87%. The price growth of the memory storage as another industry's indicator (DRAM and NAND Flash) can be seen, which can see the layout of AI computing power by various enterprises.

On December 4, according to Business Korea, Samsung Electronics will launch the world's first AI PC. At the same time, LG Electronics and Hewlett -Packard also plan to launch AI laptops. Global leading chip companies such as NVIDIA and AMD have launched HBM -related products one after another, with a large amount of memory. So, on December 25, according to foreign media Barron's report, when Micron announced their most recent financial report, Micron CEO Sanjay Mehrotra revealed to the outside world that thanks to the popularity of the generation AI, it promoted the cloud high -performance AI chip to high bandwidth memory for high bandwidth memory. (HBM) The strong demand, Micron's HBM production capacity in 2024 is expected to be sold out.

In addition to the data that can be observed in the market, we also want to share some industry executives' expectations for the future. KPMG Accountants (KPMG LLP) and Global Semiconductor Alliance (GSA) conducted a 19th global semiconductor industry survey in the fourth quarter of 2023. The survey collected 172 semiconductor executives' insights on its industry prospects in 2024 and later. More than half of the respondents come from companies with an annual income of more than $ 1 billion. In the upcoming 2024, the rate of confidence in the industry is lower than the same period last year. The main negative factors come from labor pressure, R & D expenditure, and capital investment. The profit expectations for next year generally believe that health is sustainable but grows slowly. The significant decline in customer demand affects inflation, interest rates and government subsidies. A quarter of senior executives believe that the inventory problem will continue until 2024. The cultivation and reservation of talents will continue to become the strategic focus of leaders, and once again lead the supply chain elasticity.

The theme of 2024 will be restoration and layout. From terminal demand to terminal supply is actively adjusting and optimizing, all movements are deploying the big outbreak of the next technical demand. However, in the short term, major manufacturers do not have a strong intention of equipment expenditure, indicating that the terminal demand is not clear, and the outbreak of growth requires a longer accumulation. While stimulating market demand, AI is also deeply excavated in more business value to replace more high -tech labor.

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